cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 06 2018 02:24 AM
Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc)



Odds for East Pacific Invest 97E to become a TD or Storm are coming down, with NHC now officially at 20%. This is because the Low does appear to be tracking north and into central America.

There is a chance that this Invest, or its remains, finds a way to generate on the Atlantic side next week, but a close examination of the model runs that appear most bullish on that scenario show that they are actually mistaking Invests 91L's vorticity for that of 97E. Thus a list of more likely outcomes could be for 97E to mix in with the parent gyre, adding to the unfolding dangerous flood threat in the region, and possibly go on to help produce another (new) tropical cyclone in the SW Atlantic sometime next week - but it wouldn't be the vorticity models show heading to Louisiana-Florida early next week (because that is 91L), or alternately, 97E may just merge with 91L.



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