Sun Oct 07 2018 04:19 AM
Re: NEW: 91L Lounge

Overnight model run summary:
Official forecast is for a tropical storm based on TVCN and Ships guidence, with the caveat that it does not match the global models. In short, it's not too reliable for intensity before it gets into the Gulf. However the reasoning is solid. Track is more reasonable, but the spread in the cone is there. In short things are a bit iffy in the forecast for the Gulf before the system is in the Gulf.

0Z GFS: Cat 2 landfall near Destin Wednesday afternoon.
0Z Euro Cat 3 landfall near Panama City Beach Early (just after midnight) Thursday morning
0Z FV3 GFS: Cat 1 landfall near Mobile Bay late Tuesday night.
0Z UKMET Cat 2 landfall near St. George's Island Wednesday night
0Z CMC, Clips Mississippi River Delta then landfall near Pascagoula, MS Wednesday morning Cat 1 hurricane.
0Z ICON, Cat 2 landfall near Panama City Beach late Wednesday afternoon.
0Z HWRF, Cat 3 landfall near Destin Late Wednesday morning.
0z HMON, Cat 1 landfall near Mobile Bay Wednesday morning.

Euro ensemble spread:

Based on this, those in the NHC's cone start preps today (if you haven't already) Today and Monday will likely be the only full clear days to do so. You may have part of Tuesday also, but by late Tuesday afternoon things may start to deteriorate.

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