Above: VIS image of 94L Oct 14 2018 1800z
Analyzed to be centered near 14.6N 79.5W with maximum winds of 20 KTS

A disturbance we have been keeping an eye on in the southwestern Caribbean associated with the Central American Gyre presently centered about 200 miles ese of the easternmost tips of Nicaragua and Honduras has now been Invest tagged 94L.

Conditions for tropical cyclone formation are marginal, and 94L probably only has a day or two left fully over the Caribbean waters before it starts to interact with or moves inland over central America.

It is also possible, although not currently forecast, that a better defined LLC forms within 94L more in its northern or northeastern sections, and avoids moving inland long enough to have a better chance to develop.

One interesting forecast scenario favored by several models so far is delayed TC Genesis until the low crosses over into the East Pac, where it then becomes a powerful October hurricane that loops back into and across mainland Mexico, with remnant vorticity ending up over the Gulf late in these model's runs.

Regardless of development while in the Caribbean, the disturbance is likely to to result in very heavy and potentially life-threatening rains over portions of Central America either way during the coming week.

NHC opening bid 20%

More details to come - Ciel