cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 14 2018 05:23 PM
Re: Michael Lounge

Quote:

Looking back at the model runs, it seems like the CMC and the NAV picked up on this storm pretty early but not the other models. Is there any significance to that?




These two models often run hot, and in the case of the NAV, also rather simplistic, making it easier to "see" things forming early on whether or not a more thorough examination might otherwise exclude them from developing.

All in all, once formed, models did do exceptionally well with regard to landfall location. As usual, intensity remains the biggest challenge for the models. An ERC never occurred, which was always a distinct possibility, and which could have knocked landfall down from the well-advertised "Major" to something more like a Cat 1/2. Thus Michael continued to take full advantage of the ocean-atmosphere environment, which was super supportive.



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