Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 31 2019 08:00 PM
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge

I normally don't say anything against our local mets (and, in fact, the last 3 days or so I've been fairly aggressively defending them against general public negativity on social media), but I have to say that I'm a little disappointed at the significant "all clear" sentiments that have been spreading here in west central FL by the local mets. They're already essentially putting out on SM sites that the storm will pass by the coast, and although that's [hopefully/probably] going to happen, I think the general model uncertainty and difficulty in analyzing this storm should be keeping them more guarded with what they're putting out right now.

The 18Z runs were all of a similar mind in nudging the storm westward from prior model runs, with the HWRF going so far as to call a landfall/ingress above the Cape - it shows how uncertain this prediction will be. I'm curious as to whether it could be a result of that missed Gulfstream flight that didn't provide updated data for the more recent runs that is now causing them to use "stale" data (do they input old/stale data for models which use them, or just run them without those parameters?). It seemed like when the original atmosphere data rolled into the models, they began their turn to the right, and now that we missed that one set of samples, the models are lagging back to the left. I feel like we have a serious need for all of the atmospheric data we can get for this storm, as the timing of ridges and troughs will make or break the path for sure.

Time will tell.



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