Tue Sep 24 2019 04:45 PM
Re: Karen Lounge

The 12z Euro has a big slowdown at the end of the run that it didn't have yesterday, this lowers that chance of a US impact if that holds. It'll be tough to break climatology here and not stay out to sea. But it's still worth watching to see how big a loop back it gets. I think the 5 day is pretty good though. Right now I don't think Karen will directly impact Florida with a landfall, but we'll see how it goes.

Things to watch for in the trends... before this weekend it's just flat out guessing. Do the models keep trending to the right (like they have been in the long term... 7+ days... not so much in the shorter term as the west loop seems likely then.) One run does not make a trend, although persistence is still the key in a lot of these models. (and right now beyond 6-7 days they aren't persistent)

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