WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Discussion June 5, 2019 307PM

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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 PM EDT Wed Jun 05 2019

Day 1
Valid 1902Z Wed Jun 05 2019 - 12Z Thu Jun 06 2019

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER COAST OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...AREAS OF POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...

...Eastern Texas into Southwest Louisiana...
1900 UTC Update...Pared the western peripheries of the outlook
areas (across the western Gulf Coast) based on the latest
observational/mesoanalysis trends along and west of the MCV and
associated surface low track. -Hurley

1600 UTC Update...Made minor modifications to the High and
Moderate Risk areas based on the current radar and mesoanalysis
trends, the latest FFG/soil moisture analysis, and 12Z CAM
guidance. A more notable adjustment was the eastward expansion of
the Slight Risk area through LA, more of southern-central MS, and
into southern AL. Observed PW values over 2.5" (including 2.54"
per the 12Z CRP RAOB) are well above the climatological norms, and
very close to June records. The degree and depth of the
highly-favorable thermodynamic environment (PWs 2.25-2.5+ inches,
wet bulb zero levels above 15kft, and tall/skinny CAPEs near 1000
j/kg) will maintain optimal warm rain processes and
highly-efficient rainfall rates (2+ inches in an hour). -Hurley

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