Keith B
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Jul 04 2019 05:48 PM
Re: General Model Watching

I believe I am posting this correctly. It has been a while since I have posted.

I have noticed some Twitter info in regards to the possible GOM item for next week.
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Tropical Tidbits from Twitter. Computer model.
" target="_blank">Tropical Tidbits

Greg Postel
@GregPostel
Global models are sniffing at a front sliding into (or near) the northern Gulf of Mexico later next week. Risk of tropical development from this early view is small, and the spread in possible weather outcomes is wide, but worth watching nonetheless
#flwx


NWS Melbourne discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2019
MODIFIED PREV DISC...

SAT-WED...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SLIDING SOUTH OF ECFL BY EARLY
SUN. AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF WIND FLOW FOR SAT, THEN BECOMING MORE
SSW/SW BY SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL RAIN COVERAGE. RECENT GUID FROM GFS INDICATES BROAD LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WHICH COULD FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TOWARD A SETUP FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

PWATS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES. POPS
INCREASING AREAWIDE TO AVERAGE 50-60PCT DURING THE PERIOD AND
WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SEVERAL PERIODS. THE STEERING FLOW
FOR CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA LATE IN THE DAY
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE WITH MIN VALUES NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.



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