IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Sun Jul 07 2019 07:10 AM
Re: General Model Watching

NWS Melbourne early Sunday morning (7/7) discussion:

Extended...A piece of energy will break off the southern flank of a
northern stream short wave trough departing the eastern CONUS, then
drop southward across Florida Mon-Tue. Beyond Tue, model guidance
diverge W/R/T the extent of westward retrogression/intensification
of this system, with the op-ECM continuing to be significantly more
aggressive toward that end, developing a fairly strong tropical
cyclone which eventually lifts north into the central Gulf Coast
by the end of the week. Both the op-GFS and CMC are weaker, farther
east and a little faster to lift a low across the NE GOMEX.



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