cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Jul 10 2019 03:36 AM
Re: 92L (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge

Tropical cyclogenesis is now underway, with 92L still gliding further offshore, and over progressively warmer waters. It is close to certain that advisories will begin today, Wednesday, or Thursday at the very latest.

The 0z model runs strongly suggest a Houston to New Orleans landfall, but this is still very much uncertain. Recon missions will help, and model runs out Thursday should be more reliable. A Major Hurricane at landfall is not out of the question, as is just a very, very wet high-end Tropical Storm, so we really need this recon data to help tease out subtleties that exist now, but which could have outsized influence down the road.



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