cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 21 2020 07:44 AM
Re: TD13 Forecast Lounge

THIRTEEN has been skirting the line between open wave and tropical cyclone for the better part of 12 hours now. Recon is presently back in trying to confirm a closed circulation still exists. If it finds one, and indications are that one has possibly reformed, it might necessitate naming as winds to the north of the apparent 'center' are already blowing at tropical storm force. However, one important caveat being that these storm-force winds are likely more the result of the pressure gradient that exists with higher pressure to its north, as well as the forward speed of 13, within a fairly stout easterly jet.

Provided the low/wave/low/wave can come together at enough latitude to reduce or avoid interaction with mountainous islands, the upper bound of intensity forecasts look within the realm of possibility. Barring that, and especially if it is an island runner, the system may even struggle to become a hurricane ever, at all.

By this time tomorrow we should have a much better idea as to which of whether the weaker or stronger scenario is more likely. As of this morning, just too many variables and questions remain.



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