JMII
(Weather Master)
Tue Aug 25 2020 09:18 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge

Quote:

As Philippe Papin, Atmospheric Scientist at NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, noted on Twitter earlier this morning, "Every single deterministic model has taken #Laura too far N at lead times +24h-120h. UKMET has performed best w/ track, but even it is slightly N of verification."




The error in track guidance has been pretty large with Laura, even the 3 day cone which is normally trustworthy has been too far north especially if you go by the center line (which you shouldn't). However as a hurricane with clearly defined center (with an eye at some point) and what I assume will be more recon and upper air flights the forecast should improve as they focus on a TX landfall.



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