Mon Aug 31 2020 11:00 AM
Re: Invest 99L (E Carib) Lounge

99L this morning, Monday Aug 31, is being tracked a bit northeast of where most models have it by this time. This location would appear to be the mid-level circulation, which is becoming robust. The surface 'center' is suggested by conventional satellite and recent microwave passes including scatterometer data to be located still a good deal southeast of the mid-level rotation, as a weak wave in the mean flow.

99L's mid-level circulation is likely to become sufficiently robust as to draw the surface wave into alignment with it, and if verified, the system will become better stacked. Based on this reasoning, I'm following 99L as a feature presently centered near 15N 71W, and moving west at about 15 to 20 MPH. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and possibly the Yucatan may want to begin paying closer attention to this disturbance, as a Tropical Cyclone is expected to form.

HMON brings 99L to a vigorous hurricane by tomorrow morning, which may be a bit bullish. Track-wise, it initializes 99L at a midway between the mid-level circulation and the surface wave 'center,' and runs a then hurricane into central America and then on into the eastern Pacific.

HWRF brings 99L up to Tropical Storm intensity and sends it into Belize Thursday morning.

Realistically, all models should be taken with a grain of salt until we get recon data in them, and a flight has been tasked for Tuesday.

A. 01/1300Z
C. 01/0930Z
D. 15.5N 75.0W
E. 01/1230Z TO 01/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

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