Tue Sep 15 2020 05:35 PM
Re: New SW Gulf Disturbance

Still not yet Invest tagged, but here's a rundown of some 12z model runs

ECMWF Might be initializing too far south given the LLC's recentering today, but TBD.. Gradually develops system in southwest GOM. Just off the coast of Brownsville, TX as a 40 KT TS at the end of run on Friday 9/22/12z

GFS Might have the initialization in the correct location. Keeps disturbance weak and as a trof in the SW GOM, meandering about, and mostly washes it out by Wednesday 9/20/12z.

GFSP Trof/Closed/Trof pattern until about Monday 9/21/18z when it has a well-defined TD or low-end TS roughly east of Tampico, MX. Gradually rides up the coast towards deep S Tx, and looks like a major rain event. Pushes into Brownsville, TX as a TD on Friday 9/25.

ICON Might have the initialization in the correct location. Gradually develops the system in a sloppy trof/closed/trof pattern until finally coming together well near the end of run closer to Brownsville, TX. ICON has it as a 55/60 MPH TS by end of run Tuesday 9/20 close to where the run started, about halfway between Tampico, MX and Brownsville, TX

UKMET Might initialize about right. System drifts SE and very gradually continues to cook up in a trof/closed/trof pattern until the middle of the coming weekend, where it appears to sufficiently close off a TD or TS. Slowly rides NNW offshore of Mexico and south of Brownsville. Just northeast of Tampico, MX at end of run Monday 9/21/12z as a mid-grade TS.

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