cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Oct 06 2020 08:40 PM
Re: Delta Lounge

Quote:

As a long term member/observer of FL Hurricane, it seems to me that the National Hurricane Center and possibly some of the models have considerably underestimated the intensity of this years hurricanes, especially those that end up in the Gulf of Mexico. Am curious as to what others think. On the other hand, they seem to be considerably more accurate in directions of the storms.



Quick answer is that the Global models (think GFS, EURO, UKMET, etc.) notoriously underestimate intensities in normal years. This year, forecasters have also had to deal with far less data input from flights. Flights have largely been grounded. In addition, models in general don't seem to 'bias up' just because we are in a hyperactive year, per se. All this can contribute. HWRF has done well with intensity this year, EURO has done poorly with direction. Obviously the forecasters at NHC take all this into consideration when they issue official forecasts. In general, intensity is the most difficult thing to predict in any year.



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