cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon May 31 2021 11:02 PM
Re: 2021 forecast

Still using my old formula with some tweaks and allowances for other considerations.

Names: 15 (Likely range 13-17)
Hurricanes: 8 (Likely range 7-9)
Majors: 4 (Likely range 3-5)


Forecast bias/risk: Forecast Risk is to the upside (More names may easily occur than my system is calling for, but not necessarily more hurricanes).
Above average potential for a late-ending season.

Landfall considerations:
*Trend of slower and/or wetter systems more likely to be seen this year than not.
*Above average risk of US landfalls with potential for much above average US landfalls


Final season forecast for 2021 Flhurricane Contest:
Names: 15, Hurricanes: 8, Majors: 4



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