Robert
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Jul 04 2021 10:32 PM
mid level circulation

I have watched the mid level, or southern extent of the trough that makes up the overall center. It does look good.. It was coupling together last night as it all slowed down and looked great on scatometer, then it immediately got disrupted as it interacted with Jamaica, the low level shot out and is interacting with land while the upper level/ secondary low level features continues west maybe wsw in the last few frames as of this posting..into what i would consider a better environment.
Initial Model runs early indicated much further west, with the first system pulling north as it tried to get going and the latter hit cozumel into the gulf. I assumed that would be wrong as the first sheared out, leaving the second to just chance, and really never thought it would get to florida although this year seems to be very favorable, with a forecasted neutral'ish enso... Most early system do drop thier LLCC and the mid level/secondary low level feature takes control, multiple low level centers in a trough.
I would gesture a stronger system as it turns into the trough, and possibly a sharper turn. should the southern secondary feature take hold, either the north low dies and it drops one, or the southern gets enough strength it can wrap the north back under and get all in line.......



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