EMS
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jul 05 2021 08:31 AM
Re: mid level circulation

This looks like a tropical storm in its formative stages on satellite this morning. Unless something crazy happens (like a reformation of a vertically aligned center further south of the current position), Elsa may barely survive the trip across Cuba. Also with the circulation so small and models trending a bit more west, odds of a significant wind or surge event appear to be significantly decreasing for West Central Florida. Have to keep watch once it gets back in the Gulf but I’m cautiously optimistic July climatology wins out on this one.


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