cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 20 2021 03:37 PM
Re: 98L Lounge

Based on visible and IR satellite, 98L appears to be organizing at a good clip in the extreme eastern Atlantic.

Given that it is starting out at a lower latitude, it could, as modeling suggests, track farther west than the several wave-to-named-storms that recently came before it.

NHC odds as of the 2PM TWO are 30%/80% and this could be conservative. The next name on the list in the Atlantic basin is Sam.

A rundown of some 12z Global Runs:

GFS has it as a 965mb Major Hurricane off the coast of NC on Oct 5th
CMC end of run as a 992mb storm while northeast of the Leewards islands tracking WNW or NW on Sep 30
ECMWF end of run has it as a 962mb Major Hurricane north of PR tracking WNW or NW on Sep 30

A potential wrinkle in these (and other) model forecasts is should 98L develop ahead of schedule, it could naturally want to gravitate poleward sooner rather than later, and head north out to sea.



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