cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 25 2015 05:06 PM
Re: Olaf May Impact California

Several of the 12z runs have backed off landfalling Olaf as a bona fide tropical cyclone, in favor of either more of a hybrid or remnant low moving into the Golden State, or not at all. In fact, several of the previously more bullish models now weaken the cyclone in the face of increasing shear and ever lowering SSTs, to then take Olaf, or its remnant low, on a loopty loop, and send whatever is left back out west around the southern edge of a building ridge.

12z model runs decidedly not in the loopty camp are the GFDL and GFS, with the former sending a strong tropical storm undergoing extra-tropical transition into the coast of Northern California, and the latter sending what appears to still be a tropical depression, albeit a decoupling one, southbound just offshore of Southern California.

It is worth noting that regardless of whether Olaf is intact, or merely sheds off moisture and decays well offshore, rains forecast for midweek are likely to be enhanced, which of course is a really good thing for this part of the world right now.



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