10, 4, 1

Not finding any one analog year very compelling. See some reasons to give more consideration to both 1982 (6, 2, 1) & 1991 (8, 4, 2) than I had earlier.

10/4/1 final, but a potential total bust especially so if el nino becomes either strong, or trends to neutral.

From a western Gulf of Mexico perspective, despite all the "low" forecasts agencies are putting out there, the amount of moisture now in the southern plains concerns me. For one, it is now so saturated from earth to atmosphere - and expected to keep a wet bias for many months to come - that any landfalling tropical cyclones along the Gulf could maintain inland longer than usual. This ties in to a related concern - the propensity of the current and forecast pattern to draw up moisture, and so, potentially future disturbances, from the western Atlantic, and/or even the eastern Pacific.. maybe even crossovers.