Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Jun 01 2015 12:19 AM
Re: Outlook for 2015

This year we had 17 participants which is normal for a season that is expected to be quiet. The range was from 6/2/1 to 19/11/5 and the rounded average was 9/4/2.

CSU forecast: 7/3/1
TSR forecast: 11/4/1
NOAA forecast: 9/5/1 (rounded)

Sometimes even your local weather can give you a hint as to what the upcoming season could be like, because your local weather is usually typical of a particular weather pattern that may influence some other meteorological attribute such as a higher or lower season of tropical activity. This year in east central Florida we have had a wet and uncommonly warm Spring. In April I had a new monthly rainfall record of 5.46". My previous April record of 4.41" was in 1997 (6/3/1). In April I also had 6 days with thunder which tied the record high for the month with 1994 (7/3/0), 2013 (13/2/0) and 2014 (8/6/2). Not exactly a scientific method, but the correlation is interesting.

Thanks to all who participated - at the end of the season we'll revisit the forecasts and see how well we did.

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