Mon Sep 08 2003 07:12 PM
Re: RIP Henri however

td 14 has something bad wrong with it.. losing its convection right along near the itcz. might not ever be juan if this keeps up. perhaps the wave approaching behind it will inject some moisture or flood out some of the mid level dry air that seems to be intruding.. but if it doesnt, this weak system will degenerate into the monsoon trough. needless to say i think the official forecast and most of the model runs curving it up have the wrong idea about it developing quickly... probably just trudge westward for the near future if it survives.
one other note before isabel.. watch the rather weak wave near the central caribbean. several globals track it slowly westward for the near future, and it may be in a favorable environment in the western caribbean. with henri out of the way it will be entering an area where the pattern favors development.
that said.. isabel. it's done the strengthening i'd guessed it would, now motion becomes the big issue. it's still climbing wnw.. and will have to make that model consensus westward bend in the next day or so to not throw the lot of them. there was a good bit of clustering earlier, and there still is.. but some of them bend isabel ridiculously southwestward in the long range.. do wonder what's causing that oddity. the bend isnt in the official, for reasons stated in the discussion.. but if we start seeing it, the NE caribbean becomes a very dangerous place in about four days. i'll leave the long term position speculation to the rest of you.. until it's getting close to the islands and medium range modeling starts placing it near the u.s. or elsewhere.
all the oohs and aahs about how beautiful isabel is.. let it be beautiful 1500 miles out to sea. it's too powerful now to look pretty anywhere else.
HF 2312z08september

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