Tue Sep 09 2003 09:50 AM
model camps

those ecmwf runs sure are troublesome, but i've noticed that while they continue to advance the storm far to the west, the globals in general have been slowing the storm, some adding the sw wiggle that is now showing in the official forecast. whereas about 48 hours ago the forecast position was just NE of the virgin islands, now it's just N of the virgin islands.. for example. euro is taking it 3-400 miles west of there in that time. some of the statistical leading models from the nhc suite are leaning towards the ukmet, a relatively straight wnw track. gfdl is like a northward version of gfs, while the beta advection bunch and nogaps have the exaggerated sw jerk over the next 3 days that brings the storm very close to the islands. gfs i'm taking with some skepticism.. in various runs it's taking current td 14 to the north of isabel.. catching it up and feeding it to her.. and weakening the ridge. thats all about a week out, and every gfs run at that range will have significant flaws and run to run changes. just don't believe that.. leaning more towards the modeling that keeps td 14 weak and moves it as little as possible.
so now, if anything, isabel won't be to--or just north of--the northern islands until the weekend, not friday as earlier progged... so whether a real u.s. threat will exist for next week won't be apparent until the weekend. that's unless isabel starts moving faster.. and since it's advancing with the upper flow, i'd expect the global consensus on westward progression to be essentially correct.
HF 1350z09september

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