Tue Sep 09 2003 06:25 PM
Re: Model bust

model bust meaning the storm is off a couple hundred miles over three days? thats to be expected. i'm waiting for the definitive turn... and to see whether it bends left past 270 or not. i can see how either model camp could be right, could be something in the middle. the thing i'm looking at right now is the e-w elongation that has been mentioned this afternoon. thats a cue that the upper dynamics around the storm are changing. its a powerful hurricane, and can resist such things.. how much is the question. long term dynamics as i'm reckoning are still under the ridge for most of the period, slow down on the shortwave.. then probably back west after that. there's some reasoning behind that, i'll go touch on it in the forum.
something i keep noticing.. henri's ghost keeps showing up on models.. some actually seem to redevelop the storm off the carolinas around the end of the week and send it back up the western side of the high currently blocking its escape to the northeast. might still be viable.
HF 2225z09september

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