Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 09 2003 07:34 PM
Not just one thing

That's makes me say fish---it is the cumulation of things. The main thing is, I am an empiricist---observation of what is REALLY happening usually tends to overrule theoretical projections.

The storm is deviating from the 'model consensus" and NHC official track.

The upper low is not weakening, and is not moving as fast as they say out of the way.

Historically, NHC overplays upper low dissipation/movement.

Other factors, too lengthy to go in to here---and, shall we say--intuition.

Result---my feeling, growing over time- that Isabel is a fish---will not even see the Bahamas. Not a conviction yet, but give it 24 hrs and ask me again

IHS,

Bill




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