Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Sep 20 2003 11:35 PM
It Must Be September

At least a couple of active areas to remind us that the season is far from over. In the western Gulf of Mexico a strong area of upper divergence has sparked a large area of convection. Although the area is now in a diurnal decline, it has persisted for a couple of days and it has acquired some cyclonic curvature. The area is currently (21/03Z) focused at 22N 95.5W and has a general motion to the east northeast at 15 knots. The models keep trying to do something with this area and move it along the northern Gulf coast in a couple of days.

A strong wave near 19.5N 53W has been moving to the west northwest at 15 knots and continues to support heavy convection. It is also in a downward diurnal cycle at the moment and has the potential for slow development over the next couple of days.

A third wave in the far eastern Atlantic is rather weak and only has limited thunderstorm activity associated with it. It faces an environment that will not promote much development for awhile.

The Atlantic ridge has been weakened and split by a large upper level low in the central north Atlantic. The western segment of the ridge has been displaced somewhat to the south. Northerly shear is in place between 85W and 70W while westerly shear exists between 70W and 60W along and south of 20N. Below 15N there is very little shear from 60W to the African coast.

The basin may currently be inactive in terms of named storms but I don't see that condition lasting for too much longer.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

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