Thu Sep 25 2003 05:46 PM
Re:Juan & TD 16 (Kate)

both deepening. think juan may reach hurricane strength tomorrow, come within 100-150 miles of bermuda. dependent on how it phases, could still have something to it when it hits the canadian maritimes late in the weekend or early next week. as for t.d. 16.. should be a t.s., but doesn't have a subtropical ridge to push it across.. it will most likely get strong enough so it gets turned up near 50w, then get sheared away to where it begins to meander.. very unlikely a storm forming that far east so late in the season will make it acorss.
modeling has all kinds of stuff developing elsewhere, so we may not be done. there are model runs bringing a system out of the gulf ahead of the next amplification, model runs developing a storm in the western caribbean, nogaps keeping disturbed weather east of the islands and suggesting another system trying a go near 55w next week, and that deep layer low in the subtropics between bermuda and the azores which will retrograde under the ridge (sometimes these things will develop). note that of the listed possibilities, the best is the western caribbean.. though the exact evolution of those types of systems tend to happen slowly and out of pace with whatever modeling suggests. scottsvb has as good an idea as anyone there.
once we have kate, we've made gray's september quota (at least on the total numbers).
isn't mjo amazing?
HF 2146z25september

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