Fri Sep 26 2003 09:00 AM

i'll throw my hat in with the recurvature camp for t.d. 16. don't see it coming west. still slowly organizing, satelite signature doesn't suggest it being a tropical storm yet.. but expect it to be by later today.
juan.. ragged looking. doesn't look to be all subsidence.. it does have subtropical characteristics.. but they don't seem to be driving the train. think hurricane later today.. have to watch for baroclinic intensification that may counter the forecast shear as it moves north.
two other areas of note. western caribbean trending toward slow development.. no huge pressure falls, but visibles today will probably start showing some cyclonic turning in the windfield. dependent on the initial motion.. this may have time to organize in the caribbean, or move up fairly quickly as a weak system.. assuming it does organize.
the other area is over florida.. with the upper westerlies overhead it looks sort of frontal. amplification digging down should lift it up the east coast.. pumped ridging from juan should help hold whatever surface low it has in place. what this does varies by school of model.. some develop it almost baroclinically, some mostly ignore it. without a clear cut low the latter looks more likely at this point. time will tell.
HF 1300z26september

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