(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 26 2003 02:15 PM
Re: TD 16 & NW Carib

well my 2nd miss of the season is Juan. I never expected him to become a hurricane and some data suggest he isnt but Ill go with the miss from the NHC. I didnt expect Juan to be more then 60mph and looking at sat data it only shows winds near that , but pressures are near 985mb supporting a 75-80mph hurricane. I expect weakning during the next couple days as he becomes slowly extratropical and moves to Nova scotia as previously forcasted. Everything else right on target, TD16 having some tuff times but should make it up to T.S. strength in next 24 hours or so, but will move in trackwith the avn model and be no threat to the carribean Islands.
Possible TD17 is on schedule for tomorrow and the NHC might dispatch a plane out to investiage the area. Canadian model totally backed off (as i thought) from the 989mb low. But not to say it might take off and be that eventually. Hard to pinpoint on this what it might do. Should miss the 1st trough and move slowly, but with turns N-W-NE in time crossing Fla with the timing of the 2nd trough. Too early to tell on strength or movement really. scottsvb

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