Sat Sep 27 2003 11:25 AM

been watching that too, tropicsguy. yesterday it was south of p.r./d.r. with an evident turning in the low level wind field.. crowding will be taking place if it's trying the same route as 90L... situation in the western caribbean may become very complex in the next couple of days.
juan headed for a sunday night/monday morning crossing of nova scotia. should be on the wane as it crosses those sub 20C isotherms.. dependent on how fast it's moving and what happens ahead of the trough to the west. there is that one little disturbance east of georgia heading up off the east coast.. still some modeling wants to deepen it. if it does become a baroclinic hybrid system.. that would act to pull juan further west if anything.
t.d. 16.. another sad case. it was probably a tropical storm yesterday while the nhc was pointing to a confused cloud pattern (becoming sheared). it was probably a tropical storm last night when the d-ratings were higher (convective pattern was sheared but well developed). now it's got an exposed, convection-bursting center that is probably generating spot gale force winds.. but nhc is going to keep playing it as a depression. no strengthening forecast through 72hrs. assuming it can hang on that long, window may open up the road. globals are all over with what it does (nogaps has a westward moving hurricane next week, ukmet squashes it, gfs sort of between the two). point is, no kate. from this point its future is highly uncertain.. may be around next week, may shear out and be the seventh nonstrengthening depression of the season.
HF 1525z27september

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