Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 27 2003 03:22 PM
Re: carib

FWIW, NRL has "Kate" out there for their advisories. Anyways, here's JB's take from a Special Saturday column update and the Saturday column. The keys worth noting are the evolution of the wave/Caribbean low interaction and then down the road with the trof split, front and wave south of Kate/16. That's the shot at something really strong for the Gulf of Mexico which would have to be watched in Louisiana and especially Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. If we're loosely following some of analog 1995's season (Opal in particular), a southern Gulf Development would not be out of the question for the period 11-14 days out.
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SPECIAL EDITIONS OF THE LONG RANGER AND THE TROPICAL OUTLOOK SHOULD BE ON LINE AROUND 3 PM
SATURDAY MIDDAY: TPC SHIFTS WEST.

A very significant change has occurred in TPC's track, and I dont know by reading their discussion whether they understand the implications. The discussion makes no mention of the fact that the west shift has implications for a major canadian port, Halifax.

Now look, I dont expect them to do what I do when I come around to their ideas, which is say, well I am adjusting the track toward TPC as fabian and Isabel. Obviously input from the private sector is something they chose to ignore. However, I would think they would say that this increases the threat to this city, as the track is no longer east, but over or west of them, and is a shift quite a bit toward the idea we have been spouting on the site. Now whether it happens or not can still be argued, but what cant be argued is the new forecast is bringing a hurricane west of Halifax, as opposed to the earlier idea which had it going east, or left room to do it. The threat of a hurricane hit, with a storm surge into a bay shaped to funnel water is I guess now forecasted by them also.

Ciao for now. *****




Saturday: ZONES BELOW FRIDAY OVERVIEW.! COMMENTS: COLD SHOT AND PATTERN FLIP: I have no big changes here. This is one of the strongest, longest cold periods ever seen to end September. its one thing to have an in and out one day affair, quite the other to see a 5 day mean of 10 or greater below normal in lets say Chicago, which this may do. The good news is that the ideas of this trof pulling out and the westerlies coming back look good. This "trof" split means that the western ridge flattens and extends east through the lakes in the means ( creates higher than average mid level heights there) and we see the leaving behind of the southern piece of the trof in the means. I need to try to get clear here, because alot of you dont understand. What happens is this: Where the jet stream is most strongly buckled ( temps coldest aloft in a rough manner of speaking, we will see very strong warming aloft from Friday through next Monday, so the buckling completely pulls up and the flow goes zonal. To the south though, no such warming in the means takes place, and we are left with a trof, relative to the averages over the gulf. An old front is laying in there ( next weekend) and high pressure is to the north. The tropical wave near 10 and 35 is the one to watch on its way west, cause it should be in the area in about 10 days, so we are talking the southern gulf 7-10 days down the road as an area to watch.

However before that, we have the gathering and piling up area that we have been talking about trying to develop for this weekend since Tuesday, now over the western caribbean and here we go again, same kind of thing we saw with Bill and Claudette. Existing mid level disturbance is drifting slowly northwest, and the low level tropical wave is coming from the southeast. What should happen is competition today may disrupt the whole process and lead to a downtick but come later tomorrow or Monday, they should combine. With the big 200mb ridge right in there, this looks like a case for development.

I would like to point out, from earlier week posts and the videos, that whether this develops or not, so far it is going according to plan. The increase in convection started yesterday. The system should be over the northwest tip of Cuba later tomorrow. The crucial influx of low level energy is with the wave near 75. The westward shift with this is quicker than the westward shift with the pre-existing disturbance, so it closes the distance, competes, then combines.

The idea then is that it will head slowly northeast and use the alley in advance of the fronts coming out to head toward Florida. At the very least, the rainmaking potential from a front pressing down, and low pressure moving along the front should concern folks in the rainsoaked southern part of the sunshine state. At the worst, it develops and we have Tuesday into Wednesday trouble. I am concerned and I think the latter is a good possibility. However until the players get closer on the field, its tough to say. it does fit the pattern both long range idea on the seasons end game, and the current state of affairs. I may note that the one of the analog season with very similar water temperatures off the east coast, though not in the Pacific is 1999, the year of Irene in southeast florida, which evolved out of the Caribbean.

I have always been 1-2 degrees west of TPC on Juan and I still think this is going in at Halifax or west. The storm will have hurricane conditions at landfall on its eastern side, but once 100 miles to the west, rain is about the only thing that would be a problem. I dont think this will come all the way back to hit down east Maine, but its certainly not a 0% chance. The ridge is not angled though enough for a west of north movement past 42 north, so unless its over to 67 or 68 by then, I see no reason to change the idea. However like Georges in 1998 where a 80 mile error meant everything to New Orleans, though against a skill score was not a bad forecast, 80 miles here means a whole heck of alot to Halifax. Quite bluntly, my track would imply a hurricane hitting the city with a tidal surge, the TPC track is an escape to the east as they would have an offshore wind. The moral of the story for our Canadian friends is that I am more bullish on the city getting hit or being EAST of where the center crosses, exposing them to the full surge from the ocean and the uninhibited transfer of the strong winds down to the surface that occurs east of the center of these kind of storms.

16 is a goner, at least from the recurved point of view, but we knew that. We have to watch what is trying to come underneath though, not for quick development, but for what it could do, but over a week away.



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