Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 27 2003 08:35 PM
Re: Northward Bound

Hey Toni,

Don't buy the hype. It's all laid out in Bastardi's column I quoted. It won't be until tomorrow that the battle between the MLC and entraining wave will be over to see what we will be dealing with. We likely won't see development until Monday sometime if ever. Gut call would be a minimum-medium grade tropical storm coming in somewhere south of Tampa Bay on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. In any event, another 2 to locally 6" of rain is possible in south Florida mid-week.

As for shear, the front is probably going to barrel into the mid-Gulf, so the shear will be over the northern half of the Gulf. The flow in front of the front would be SW meaning a NNE-ENE movement thereafter. However, the front & jet will be a good entrance region for the system and would provide a degree of ventilation if it gets going. I don't see any reason why it shouldn't given the pattern that spawned 4 other TD's+ this year.

Steve



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