Sun Sep 28 2003 12:16 AM
systems go

kate formed. how nice, it's probably been there a full day. should poke around the central atlantic for a few days if the models have a clue.. think they do. have to wonder what that deep layer low to the north is going to do to it.. probably get some kind of double entrainment as the cold upper low is decoupling from its lower level reflection and troughing out over time.
closer to home, juan is 24 hrs give or take from a nova scotia hit. nhc has kept saying gfdl is verifying well.. if that continues to hold true.. some of those runs have been keeping it at the same (cat2 or so) intensity at landfall, well defined over colder water due to some kind of barotropic effect. michael in 2000 did something like this.. might be quite a wallop for the canadian maritimes.
low off the east coast is under too much shear and should become frontally associated. still may act to draw juan over just a tad.. but just a tad. probably no threat for maine... and this low shouldn't do much else.
90L, the deal. convection trending back up at this hour.. not any kind of core.. but the turning is becoming apparent even on IR.. think we will finally get a system tomorrow. not a great deal of certainty.. these things sometimes develop when there isn't a lot going for them.. and other times linger for days in optimal conditions as broad, diffuse systems. no telling.
talk of an opal.. been noticing globals taking it over to the BOC/yucatan.. as opal did. that would be days in evolution. premature. simpler, easier outcome would probably be the storm sliding up ahead of the next trough middle of next week.. as whatever it is.. into florida.
bastardi is on that wave out near kate, as steve's excerpt alludes.. not looking that far down the road yet, but with the heads up i'll definitely be looking for it.
mjo, mjo, mjo. it does the trick.

HF 0417z28september

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