HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Sep 28 2003 01:39 PM
Re: 90L

let me add a little uncertainty to your statement, jl. been checking the sfc obs in the yucatan, belize, cayman, eastern cuba... honduras. reporting calm winds in the eastern yucatan, gusty se winds near cozumel, weak westerly winds in belize and honduras. sure sounds like a broad circulation to me.. with convection going in the middle.
if anything gets in the way of 90L going, its going to be that the low starts trying to tighten over land. if you look at old tracks (opal and agnes for example), systems can/do maintain organization in this area if the conditions are right. no telling.
the ssd rating on '93' off the mid-atlantic coast earlier probably represents the peak of this system.. it's elongating some, and has all its convection on the NE side. there have been buoy reports suggesting pressure near 1004mb, winds as high as 25kt. reminiscent track and behavior to that low in mid-august 2000 that produced gale force winds, but the nhc never named... probably will be treated with similar disregard. with the proximity to juan and the advancing front, the squeeze is on... its just a hybrid low racing in behind juan. probably frontally associate up near the gulf of maine and amount to nothing more than another shot of rain in juan's wake.
kate.. should be interacting with that complex cutoff low to the north. one should entrain the other.. or something. it might be ambling back westward as ridging in the atlantic shifts to block its escape.. this time of year those central atlantic storms get whipped around on odd tracks that suggest great confusion. maybe kate will give us one of those... join the likes of ginny '63, inga '69, ginger '71, kyle '02.
or maybe it will shear out and get gobbled up by the low to the north.
HF 1740z28september



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