Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Sep 28 2003 07:56 PM
Motion of 90L

Actually, depending on when you looked at it, you all may be right. Earlier this afternoon, NASA close-up imagery showed a nicely defined mid to low level circulation moving to the north. Later, that motion became northwest for about an hour or so and for the past couple of hours the movement has been to the west northwest at 5 knots. At 21Z the center was at 19.7N 86.4W while at 23Z it was located at 19.8N 86.6W.

Steering currents are very weak in the area (and forecasted to remain that way) and there is a possibility that the small center is beginning a tight cyclonic loop just southeast of Cozumel - it will take a few more hours before we can tell, and we may have to wait until first visibles tomorrow morning to find out for sure.

Some weak banding was evident on the last-light visible images and a small area of convection was starting to fire up just to the east of the center. Pressure is down to 1005mb or about 4mb lower than yesterday evening.

System hasn't done much all weekend...but its still there and the pressure is lower. Models are all over the place with this one. At 120 hours there is a variance of 14 degrees of latitude and 42 degrees of longitude, i.e., future track if it develops is very uncertain.
Cheers,
ED



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