Mon Sep 29 2003 10:42 AM
Re: Will something form?

hard to pick a center out from sfc obs other than to say the lowest reported pressure has been near cozumel.. but those obs are only updating intermittently. upper ridging has been suppressed to the north by some impressive shear over the gulf... sfc N/NE winds have dived down into the bay of campeche/central gulf in a frontal wake (with all the upper energy shifting east with the leading shortwave).
the low near cozumel is in a naturally comfy place.. or at least should be if neither the NE flow or tropical flow from the east infringe on its weak circulation. otherwise this bottleneck should act to tighten it.
the convective pattern is lopsided NE and bursting convection near the assumed center.. over land. over water it would be a shoe-in.. over land and nudging the periphery of the upper support its slightly questionable.. but there should still be a system forming down there, in spite of models failing to register much.
kate still moving NE, banding-type eyespot flashing as it did yesterday. really way the hell out in the middle of nowhere. juan gone, the subtropical low behind it gone, both to canada.
bay of campeche system looking less defined than yesterday afternoon.. probably nothing at the surface, just a mid level disturbance.
HF 1442z29september

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