Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Sep 29 2003 02:15 PM
The Next System?

Monday Evening Update

As noted in the TWD earlier this afternoon, the poorly organized center, if you could call it that, has energized further west. At 21Z, the closest thing that I could find with any rotation at all was near 22.4N 88.6W and it was stationary. The overall structure is less well defined than it was 24 hours ago and if the weak center continues to rebuild further to the west, the likelyhood of development will decrease since the upper air environment becomes more hostile. If nothing else, it looks like 90L will be noted for its rainfall from the Yucatan to south Florida.

Original Post

After a short stall south southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, Sunday evening, the circulation center of Invest 90L moved in a general northward direction during the night...and it still is, at 10 knots. At 17Z the center was near 22.3N 87.0W, or just to the north of the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. The system is still poorly organized but seems to be ever so slowly getting its act together. Water temps are toasty, shear is light (except to the north) and convection predominates to the east of the center. A new area of convection is developing, aided by orographic lift over the northern Yucatan, to the south of the center.

Water vapor imagery defines an eventual northeast to east northeast movement, so even if it doesn't make it much past TD stage because of the increasing shear to the north, it will certainly shove a lot of moisture toward Florida. With a stalled front over central Florida, over-running of moist tropical air will produce plenty of rain for the southern half of the not-so-sunshiney peninsula for the next few days. Flood Watches are already in place for most of central and south Florida. I'd anticipate TD 17 sometime tonight.

Hurricane Juan is gone, but not before bringing gusts of 85 to 90mph to Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island shortly after midnight (ET) last night. Kate continues to meander in the central Atlantic and will continue to do so for a few more days. Kate is likely to become the sixth hurricane of the season.

The rest of the basin is quiet and nothing new is on the horizon. Africa is very quiet. The last wave off of the African coast evaporated in less than 12 hours - signs that the Cape Verde season has closed down for the year.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

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