Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 23 2006 12:21 PM
Re: No longer a trough?


It would appear from the latest vis imagery loops that there maybe a better defined surface circulation developing east of Great Abaco Island. Its difficult to see for sure as there is also an increase in convective activity in this region. If this trend continues we *might* even get a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement, especially as its tracking slowly towards the west - putting the northern Bahamas in the firing line first.

I pretty much concur here. There is much better surface inflow/convergence into this area (circled), about which there are several weak vortices (maked "X") rotating.

Also, the upper low has dropped SW a scosh, placing this area in a more favorable pattern of low to moderate, but more importantly divergent upper level shear. The upper low's position is obvious on water vapor imagery, however, if you have a keen eye, you can make out it's position on vis imagery if you follow the pattern of convective CI blowoff.

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