Wed Aug 09 2006 02:22 AM
debby misses her audition

there was a decent little vortex earlier today... for some reason increased convection coincided with decreased organization (can't see any cumulus lines on the southern side of the sketchy convection... looks open). that was the only dramatic change that occurred... really odd that it seems to have stunted the disturbance into an open wave.
that was the only thing that looked very impressive in the basin... the scattered disturbances over the weekend that looked more impressive have yielded nothing and continue to do so.
mjo wave is working into the central pacific. if the opposing positive phase (suppressed convection/increased upper troughing) is what is to blame for the fizzled start to august, then provided it doesn't peter out or something the negative phase part of the wave should be here later this month. would help it along if SOI stays in the tank and starts to work against the trades. otherwise atlantic hurricane activity will have trouble, sans the usual spike in activity around the annual peak.
HF 0622z09august

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