cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 09 2006 04:39 AM
Re: debby misses her audition

I wouldn't write off 91L until we start hearing the opera - and right now it's more like jazz after an evening of sleepy ocean waves and light classical.

Maybe, just maybe, 91L has benefited some this late overnight from the slightly lower shear, slightly higher SSTs (which will also be in it's future), and the nocturnal max. At this hour at least, 91L does not resemble an open easterly wave to me - as much as it strikes me as a broad low pressure system with a decent convective flare, embedded within an easterly wave.

Let's see what happens to all of this when the sun gets out, however. I do speculate that because 91 stayed weak, it has also been running a tad on the southern reaches of guidance, thus getting some additional shelter from the higher shear values to the north. Sneaky.

It will be interesting to see if NRL adds 91 back *and* especially so, should they include the TCFA - while equally telling if FNMOC removes either or both.



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