Sun Aug 13 2006 12:18 PM
Re: recon

hmm.. neither feature looks really great right now... guess they're expecting them to persist or something, since nrl has them as invests.
92L has an offcenter anticyclone aloft and a decent convergence line oriented sw/ne on the northern side. oddly it's biggest detractor is the slow movement and failure to stay linked with the high aloft. convection is spotty and the low at the surface is very weak. think the recon at this point is a tad unnecessary. this one clearly falls short of the deep convection requirements the nhc guys slap onto every potential system. with the persistent weakness off the east coast, it would have to migrate further westward to sneak underneath--a short term development would likely recurve out of the caribbean.
93L is nothing right now. several of the globals are closing an upper low off at the base of the east coast trough and splitting it back westward. should continue to aid turning at lower levels and keep a weak low focused underneath along the decaying frontal trough in the western atlantic. globals generally show enough of a weakness remaining affixed to the east coast that anything that might develop would just lift out northward, slowly. also perhaps the potential for a stalled system.
i wouldn't chalk either system up to 50/50 right now. need to see more persistance before either begins to look like a serious development threat.
HF 1618z13august

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