scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 13 2006 02:55 PM
Re: recon

Only real system of intrest is the one forming later tonight into Monday east of Florida.....This pattern with overall pressures lower (ala trough) was seen by me last week as a area of intrest. I said that it will possibly impact Florida or the Se coast to the Carloinas if anything did develop..... The other area just east of the carribean will desolve in 12-24hrs. Another area of intrests the models like is a piece of energy from trough moving into the gulf...hard to say if its the system forming from above or just a branch off of the trough also.

Anyways..this system has the best chance of becoming Debby by later Monday or into Tuesday...it has warm ssts...enough moisture for development..low enough pressures.....just only windshear for now...but I expect that to lessen some in the next couple of days as a ridge builds to its N......also with the ridge...I expect whatever nw path it takes in the next couple of days to push it back to the S and W later in the week .....for now...its the best chance at developing...models are beginning to pick up on it...but landfall and path is still uncertain as we dont have a center and ridge strength is unknown in 72hrs.



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