Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 26 2006 11:42 AM
Re: East Coast Swirl

I copied my post from another forum. What the GFS, GFDL, & NOGAPs models are keying on is obviously a weakness in the upper ridge. I have included a series of model time slice plots to show the evolving weakness forecasted by the 06Z GFS. What's a little disturbing is that once the break in the ridge develops, the eastern portion shows a SW-NE orientation which is allowing the storm to start recurving (albeit slightly) to the N-NE. By Friday night, the ridge over FL completely collapses with the portion over TX remaining intact. If this verifies, I think Texans could breathe a little easier - However, I'm more concerned now for the FL panhandle and NE GOM in general then yesterday. Again, this is what is forecast today - everyone is correct in that these conditions can change in 4-5 days time.

Thursday night 8 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_138s.gif

Friday morning 8 AM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_150s.gif

Friday night 8 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_162s.gif



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