There's a lot to be said for trend forecasting, and if you take the forecast trend for Ernesto, and the significant adjustments in the atmosphere and forecast models -- strength of UL trof and retreat of subtropical ridge -- there's every reason to think the center COULD miss Florida altogether. It's happened plenty of times previously. Watch Ernesto today and see if it stays to the east of the current forecast track. No doubt, we'll be looking at a significantly different forecast tomorrow morning, just like has been happening every day for the past three days.