danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Jun 25 2009 10:31 PM
Attachment
NE GOM and Western Caribbean

I looked at the NE and Mid GOM earlier today. Especially after the thunderstorm complex south of Mobile exploded at sunrise. Warm SSTs and the Sun probably exacerbated what was left of the system that dumped 1.85" of rain in Baldwin County,AL.

Of interest tonight is the moderate sized thunderstorm complex located in the Western Carribbean Sea.
The GFS hinted at this area a few days ago but was the sole model forecasting the development.

TWC went right to it tonight and Jim Cantore said it is being watched closely due to the TUTT to the north. Forecast to retrograde toward the west, and an upper level High is forecast to build in over the Western Caribbean system.
I believe the GFS forecast this system to build, cross the western tip of Cuba, and recurve through the Florida Straits. This was the 12Z forecast on June 23rd.

So far this is the only worthwhile mention of the forecast system.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
945 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

VALID 12Z MON JUN 29 2009 - 12Z THU JUL 02 2009
(edited~danielw)

...SOUTHEAST...
ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERLIES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ULTIMATELY RETROGRADE UNDER ITS BASE...BRINGING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA FROM NEXT TUESDAY ONWARD.


Image courtesy of Colorado State



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