Fri Jun 26 2009 04:36 PM
Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday

So far there hasn't been much to speak of at all at the surface, other than a tropical wave of decent intensity. Pressures have not been falling much to speak of, nor has there been any appreciable increase in the degree of cyclonic flow around any real "center of circulation." At present, there is one weak lower level vortex much closer to Cuba and pushing north, now around 21N 83W, ready to pass over or near the Isle of Youth -

On the other hand, 93L, the whole enchilada, finds itself in what looks like the best environment yet so far this season in the Atlantic basin for development. Upper level winds atop all of 93L are decidedly gentle and anti-cyclonic, moisture throughout the column is abundant, and instability is pretty high, overall, obvious by the persistently strong thunderstorm clusters that keep regenerating.

If and when we actually start to see some real turning at the surface closer to the main area of convection and trof axis (closer to 18N 84W, for example) my sense is that 93L could potentially go from zero to fifty rather quickly. It also looks that 93L, whether or not it becomes a tropical cyclone, will probably carry with it an abundance of rainfall, provided it does not run into or inhale and choke on too large a fetch of dry air.

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