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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009 edited~danielw ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS FROM 10N-21N ALONG 84W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE IS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17.5N. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 81W-85W AND IS IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. STRONG MOIST SLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMAICA IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF DISORGANIZED WEATHER WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SYSTEM OVER HONDURAS AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN... SPREADING NWD OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL CUBA. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/270000.shtml? |