danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Jun 27 2009 03:56 PM
Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday

Appears to have multiple vortices. Near surface vortice is in the clear area SW of the main convection.
Second vortice is under the southernmost cluster of thunderstorms.
Third and Main vortice, at this time, is just east of Cozumel, per the JSL enhancement. This area should cross into the GOM by sundown.

ULL over the BOC could assist in the vorticity of the system. Combined with the Upper level High that's nearly centered over the system.
See the current shear graphics on the preceding page. Upper Level High over Lower Low almost, always will intensify to some degree.

Also of notice are the two systems over CONUS. Low over the Eastern Seaboard States and a High located over the Midwest. Somewhat of a hammerhead against the northward movement of the system. Also might explain, to some degree, the right or left turn that the models are forecasting.



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