danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Jun 28 2009 08:28 AM
Re: 93L Nearing the GOM

All of the Floater satellite shots are indicating a distinct vortice near/ over Cancun at this time.
Latest METARs from the Cozumel and Cancun airports support the satellite observations.

Cozumel:
MMCZ 281145Z 14003KT 7SM SCT015TCU BKN080 OVC200 24/24 A2987 RMK SLP108 57015 900 8/277 DSNT CBS 3,4 QDTE (edit distant thunderstorms SW & NW Quadrants...Cancun area, Cozumel pressure 1010.8mb)
MMCZ 281045Z 00000KT 7SM FEW015 BKN080 24/24 A2986 RMK 8/470 DSTN CBS LTG W
(edit-distant thunderstorms and lightning to the west...Cancun Area)

Cancun:
MMUN 281148Z 00000KT 4SM -RA BKN010CB BKN090 24/23 A2988 RMK SLP111 57006 956 60055 8/360 (edit-calm wind,light rain,1000ft ceiling and thunderstorm pressure 1011.1mb)
MMUN 281043Z 00000KT 5SM RA BKN015CB OVC090 24/23 A2987 RMK 60095 8/36/

Convective Hot Tower is noted on the current satellite photos in the immediate vicinity of Cancun,MX. Nearly in the center of the vorticity center,
Cancun Radar is out of service so I am using the surface observations in place of the radar.

I'm not going to write this one off yet. I'll wait to see what happens when the vorticity center moves offshore.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
222 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

VALID JUN 28/0000 UTC THRU JUL 01/1200 UTC
(edited~danielw)
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...

RECOMMENDATION: EXCLUDE THE WEAKER GFS FOR SURFACE LOW DEPICTION
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE
IN ALLOWING THE DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EMERGE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...
WHILE THE GFS DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HRS. GIVEN ITS REASONABLE ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE SEEN
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AT LEAST A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
EXIST...
A SOLUTION TOWARD THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE PLUME
OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE PARTIALLY PULLED
INTO THE BROAD LOWER/MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REFER TO THE QPFPFD FOR MORE INFORMATION.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PMDHMD&max=61



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